Assessing internal changes in the future structure of dry–hot compound events: the case of the Pyrenees

Abstract. Impacts upon vulnerable areas such as mountain ranges may become greater under a future scenario of adverse climatic conditions. In this sense, the concurrence long dry spells and extremely hot temperatures can induce environmental risks wildfires, crop yield losses or other problems, consequences which could be much more serious than if these events were to occur separately in time (e.g. only spells). The present study attempts address recent changes following dimensions: duration (D), magnitude (M) extreme (EM) compound dry–hot Pyrenees. analysis focuses high that within periods order estimate whether internal structure event underwent change observed period (1981–2015) it will (2006–2100) intermediate (RCP4.5, where RCP is representative concentration pathway) (RCP8.5) emission scenarios. To end, we quantified temporal trends events, well bivariate probability density functions for main Pyrenean regions. results showed date risk has increased by one dimension – (including magnitude) during last few decades. relation future, increase was found associated with an both (extremely spells) throughout Pyrenees spring RCP8.5 northernmost part range summer same scenario.